So… That happened.
Yesterday was Super Tuesday and, oh boy, did it not live up to its name. I think the words “should drop out” saw more action in one 24 hour span than Jack Bauer saw in 8.5 seasons. Everyone stood around poking what they assumed was the dead carcass of The Republic proclaiming, “What did you do?!”
Fingers were pointed, accusations made, and every candidate left has absolutely no viable path to the White House, or so I’ve heard. Some are right, some are really, really, really wrong, and others are over in the corner with a yo-yo trying to figure what makes it go up and down; we’ll call them “Ben Carson’s remaining supporters.”
I’m going to agree with some of you, chastise others, and give my own analysis of the situation.
Stop. Stop it right now. I’m growing weary of the ridiculous situation bets; “9 times out of 10, if a candidate wins Virginia, comes in second in Oklahoma, and takes sixth place in Narnia, they win.” Let’s all just acknowledge that this primary is like a unicorn, and trying to compare it to the horses that normally run in the race is never going to work. And, like a unicorn, Donald Trump’s conservative credentials don’t actually exist. This is an entirely new ballgame, and it’s being played in the North Pole… with hockey sticks, soccer balls, and bourbon.
“Rubio should drop out!”
Here’s the problem with that thoughtless, lazy theory (besides the fact that it’s thoughtless and lazy): The remaining states are not being taken into consideration. The good ol’ South was Cruz’s audition in front of the eager judges panel, the North – and of course Florida – is Rubio’s. Unfortunately, only one judge turned their chair around for Cruz, and it was Piers Morgan. If Cruz can’t run circles around Trump in the South, it’s definitely not going to happen for him in the North. Now add in the fact that Cruz has been polling worse than Rubio when matched against Hillary, and quite honestly, the calls for Rubio to exit are not only premature, but an attempt to push out our best chance against the wannabe felon. Or, as Leon Wolf so brilliantly pointed out:
The bad news is that the expectations for his performance tonight were not nearly high enough for him to have a very good path forward. We’ve gone over this at length here before, but Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia are tailor-made states for Ted Cruz, and he lost them handily to Donald Trump.
Here are facts, and Cruz people can mock Rubio for having only one won state all they want, but if this race were likened to a football season, Cruz would be 4-2 and Rubio would be 3-3, except Cruz has played the Browns, Titans, Lions, Chargers, Jaguars and Ravens. Meanwhile, Rubio has played the Patriots, Broncos, Packers, Seahawks, Steelers and Bengals. It’s tempting to say that Cruz is the better team and is going to finish with a better record, but the upcoming schedule for both teams flip-flops, so a smart analyst would actually predict the opposite.
Not recognizing such facts is similar to when Trump supporters count states instead of delegates. It’s downright silly, and you should stop.
“Ted Cruz should drop out!”
Okay, so weeks ago I said that Cruz should drop out because I was watching his polling in the South, which actually wasn’t that far off when compared to the results. And, let’s be frank, I legitimately dislike Ted Cruz. A lot. I dislike him a lot. There are Democrats roaming this earth that I’d rather vote for, but that’s beside the point… The point is that while I don’t believe Ted Cruz will win, I don’t trust a portion of his following.
Now, I have plenty of Cruz Crew friends who are incredibly intelligent, honest, and decent people. They’ve avoided his faults like the plague, but they are good people. I trust that their votes would move to Rubio, and I know they’d do the right thing.
There’s a significant faction of his following constantly screaming “establishment,” “RINO,” and “SHILL!”
They terrify me.
I honestly have no idea where they rank on the sanity scale. I don’t know if they’ll go to Rubio, Trump, Sanders, or just light themselves on fire with that little flame thing that’s been attached to their profile picture since Cruz said “I’d like to annou…”
At this point, a brokered convention is a real chance to save ourselves, and in order for that to happen, our focus should mainly be on taking delegates from Trump. If someone yells “establishment shill!” at me, I’m not going to expect them to understand such details. These are the people that cheer on government shutdowns, say they support Cruz because the GOPe hates him, and are genuinely annoying people. I don’t trust them to do the right thing, so it’s better for Cruz to stay in. It’s similar to putting your kids in their room with Disney movies, Kool-Aid, Teddy Grahams, edge protectors, and a drop cloth; you know where they are, you know they’re occupied, and the mess they make is controlled and easily cleaned up.
“Kasich should drop out!”
I agreed with you. Yesterday. Kasich has become a festering sore, but he’s our festering sore. If he had dropped out before yesterday, Rubio would have easily taken Virginia, and the Lord of Darkness would have been dealt a blow he didn’t expect. However, now Kasich is like that annoying kid who tagged along for the ride, and now we’re too far away to turn back around… and I’ve been told that throwing him out of the car is frowned upon. Now we have to deal with his off-pitch singing, constant bathroom breaks, and gee-golly great attitude. We need him to take Ohio… and stay there. Win the state, Kasich. You go fill up on corn, chili, and Buckeye candy. Buy a pair of Sperry’s, chillax, and take in a few months worth of sunsets. Don’t leave the race, just win Ohio, and then stay there and do nothing.
Mr. “We’ve canceled the wedding, but we’re still engaged” will be officially leaving the race any day now, right?. After saying he’d be skipping Thursday’s debate (Was he at the last one?), Carson has said he “does not see a political path forward.” He’s breaking off his relationship with the primary election, but still wants to be friends. Like he’s here, but he’s not.
“EVERYTHING IS LOST! BURN THE VILLAGE!”
Chill out, it’s not the end. This is going to be a long, tedious, soul crushing process. You’re going to face heartbreaks, ups, downs, and various death threats from those special Trump supporters who oppose you. Chin up, ol’chap! The fat lady might be warming up her vocal cords, but I intend to do everything that I can to keep that microphone out of her chubby little fingers, and so should you. Do what I do: Start with the worst case scenario, accept it, and then fight it.
Worst case scenario: Trump is on the general ticket, the GOP splits, and Hillary wins. The good news, if the GOP splits, we don’t have to take Trump with us, and the sane can walk away with some semblance of our dignity.
Best case scenario: Marco causes a huge upheaval, takes the race by storm, annihilates Hillary in the general race, and the Sweet Meteor of Death I invited is told that the welcome party I had planned for him has been canceled.
“Trump has this in the bag!”
If there’s one piece of joy that I can give you, one little spark of hope, remember that the odds of Trump ever being a resident of the White House are very, very, very small. He won’t win, and Hillary will wipe the floor with him.
That said, let’s move on to the facts: Last night Trump lost Oklahoma, Texas, Alaska, and Minnesota. Texas was a done deal long before Tuesday, and Alaska is like that rebellious child who hates its mother (You show Sarah what’s up, Alaska!), but Oklahoma and Minnesota are the two states that speak against Trump the most.
Oklahoma is not just where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain, it’s also where only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. That’s an important detail, because the upcoming states are, for the most part, closed or hybrid states. Closed states shouldn’t be as beneficial to Trump, nor should the Northern states. When hitting the voting booths, Republicans have consistently closed a good portion of the gap in the polling, and I pray that this is the case for the remaining states. Even if it’s not enough to catapult Rubio, may it be enough to bring on a brokered convention.
Unfortunately, a brokered convention may be our best answer if Rubio doesn’t take Florida (But I’m keeping the faith alive, so don’t let me down, Florida!). Why? Because I don’t see Cruz and Kasich dropping out and endorsing Rubio, and Rubio is our best shot on the general ticket.
Point being, with some aggressive campaigning, some strategically spent money, gallons of war paint, and some Eye of The Tiger, Trump is far from having this “in the bag.” So, crack your knuckles, do some Palates, paint half of your face blue if that’s what you need to do, and let’s go to war.
Have you ever watched someone’s soul die?
Would you like to? Let me oblige:
If shame and disappointment had a love child, it would be the expression we saw on Christie’s face; Trump has already begun treating Christie like a pimp treats a retiring prostitute. Christie, out of sheer bitterness, bid adieu to his moral compass, and any respect any of us had left for him. He’s not alone. There may be a lot of Republicans who do the same, similar to sticking their spit-covered finger in the air and following where they think the wind is blowing. However, Trump is going to fall, and by next year at this time we’ll be the bitter masses screaming “I told you so” – exhausted from the uphill battle they forced upon us – or we’ll be under Hillary’s reign; both of which provide an ending for them so tragic that Nicholas Sparks will be jealous of the tears produced. We are already witnessed the beginning stages of such an “ending.”
I, as well as many others, will spend our time reminding our fellow Republicans what these opportunistic jackwagons put us all through. If you think the GOP had it tough when the Tea Party sprouted its wings, in the iconic words of Bachman-Turner Overdrive, “B-b-b-baby, you just ain’t seen n-n-nothin’ yet.” At that point The People wanted to bruise, after this debacle we’ll be going for blood. If this entire mess splits the party, it would behoove politicians to follow in the steps of Ben Sasse:
“I hope it happens that over the next 30 or 60 days that the Republican Party again becomes the party of Abraham Lincoln, limited government, and great human potential. I want to celebrate what’s good about America in the Republican Party,” Sasse said. “But if the Republican Party becomes the party of David Duke and Donald Trump, I’m out, and I think lots and lots and lots of people are out. So ultimately, there will be more choices than these two if Trump is the nominee.”
So listen, GOP, Ben is planning to follow after the sane and decent portion of the GOP (if necessary), and that includes those of us who have worked on your campaigns, worn your names on our chests, and knocked on doors. Those of us who understand how government works, who pay attention, and read the bills that the mouth breathers currently leading our party constantly force you to defend. We don’t blame you for all of our woes, because we’ve paid attention to your successes, and we know how much you have prevented, and how bad things would be if Democrats controlled all three branches. WE are the arms and legs of this movement, not those who fell on their face for a guy who intends to trash property rights via eminent domain abuse, usher in a police state with the intent of mass deportation (which would sink our economy), disregard due process, continue treating women like trash, start a trade war with China, pull out of the Middle East WHILE bombing them and taking their oil, commit war crimes by purposefully targeting the families of our enemies, usher in a NEW brand of socialist healthcare, create a Pravda-esque environment in journalism, praise Chinese communists who slaughtered protesters, admire Putin, continue funding Planned Parenthood, etc., etc., etc.
So, to put it rather simply, we’re keeping notes, and pandering to those with a broken moral compass will not sit well with us.
Far from having the same kind of Kevlar media armor Trump enjoys, if you think you inherit his invulnerability, you’re deeply, sadly mistaken. You’re about to become a bullet magnet for every controversial statement Trump has made…and if you try to out-Trump Trump, you’ll be laughed off the stage.
As a Republican governor, a senator, or member of Congress, or as a Republican candidate, let me remind you: You’re known by the company you keep. By associating yourself with or endorsing Trump, you own Trump’s toxic radioactivity with voters outside his base. You own his economic ignorance, his poisonous stupidity on every consequential matter of policy, and his lack of political and personal discretion. And you own it forever. The Internet—and ad-makers like me—never forget.
There’s a reason Trump’s favorability rating is 2:1 negative, why almost no scenario leads him to victory in November. There’s a reason why women and Hispanics loathe Trump. There’s a reason why conservatives know Trump isn’t one of them. And there’s a reason why smart down-ballot candidates and elected officials who can see beyond the current frenzy are heading for the exits from the Trump circus; beyond the core of his supporters, Donald Trump is a hideous cancer on American political life. He’s an objectively terrible person, and that eventually matters in politics.
“But if he wins, we must back him, because this is who The People have chosen.”
“The People” haven’t “chosen him.” Deceptive talk show hosts, TV hosts, and opportunistic tools have “chosen him.” If the truth had been exposed from day one we – more than likely – wouldn’t be here.
Let me put it to you like this: When the front runners for President are a woman under investigation for felonious activity – and let’s face it, we all know she did it – and a man who is under investigation for fraud – and let’s face it, we all know he did it – I’m going to need you guys to muster more than “The People have chosen” before we hand over the nuclear codes.
Fight. I’ll join you. #NeverTrump