Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: Donald Trump will not be winning the White House. On a scale from Charles Pinckney to George McGovern, I’m guessing that Donald Trump’s loss – in a general election – would be at best an Alf Landon, but most likely a Walter Mondale. Yes, he’s crazy, dangerous, etc., but the most this lunatic can do is give us Hillary and destroy the GOP, he will never be the leader of the United States.
We all sit back and hope that at the Cleveland Convention someone other than Trump or his
bedfellow opponent, Ted Cruz, walks away with the nomination. This is the best option for the future, full stop. However, what if that doesn’t happen? What if it comes down to Trump or Teddy? Pretty much everyone with a pulse would say, “Why, Ted Cruz of course!”
But upon closer look… well, we’ll get to that.
I’ve been saying – since day one – that Trump is a parasite to Conservatism, and I haven’t changed my views on this; however, conservatives are deeply wrong in regards to choosing the lesser evil and what it will do to the GOP as a whole. At this point, choosing the lesser evil between the two is like giving CPR to a corpse and expecting that after it’s all over no one is going to judge you for going full Weekend at Bernie’s with it first. The only way to salvage this election is to either pick a completely different candidate at the convention, or go third party – I’ll explain why below, with three possible scenarios.
I’m also going to tell you why Donald Trump would be better than Ted Cruz on the general ticket if, God forbid, it comes down to one of them. Why? Because I’m the friend that tells you what you might not want to hear.
Additionally, I am begging you: DO NOT be dumb and vote for Trump because of this post, that’s not its purpose, and I would never encourage such a thing.
To the meat and potatoes:
Scenario 1: Ted Cruz wins the nomination. Hillary vs. Ted, here we come!
First, as I laid out here – in a futuristic 2016 election autopsy post – Cruz’s immigration stance will come back to haunt him.
As late-decision voters made their choices in the final weeks of the race, Democrats had successfully separated Ted Cruz from the unifying ideology of Ronald Reagan. Ted Cruz was reduced to a lonely right-wing conservative who casually dismissed those who were hurting, and staged his family’s affection in campaign clips. He was forced to bear the weight of Donald Trump’s narrative after getting cozy with him in the early stages of the primaries, combined with the fact that the young candidate was unable to emotionally connect with female voters, such issues left him hanging by a thread in November.
I also noted that while Cruz has a decent favorability rating with Republicans (shocker), he’s second to last in net favorability with general election voters (not a shocker).
In a race with Donald Trump.
Let that rubber ball bounce around in your Prefrontal Cortex for a while.
Moving on. Here’s one of his latest polls with the general public:
Aaaand with Republicans and “Republican-Leaning” Independents:
And according to this CNN/ORC poll, the more people get to know Cruz, the less they like him.
It’s like that slow and sinking feeling you might get on a blind date.
“Hi, I’m Michael.”
Hmmm… he seems nice enough.
“I still live at home.”
Okay… maybe he wants to save his money for the future.
“Huh. My Mom’s Lasagna is better than this restaurant’s…”
We have a problem.
“Hi, Waiter, can I get a piece of cheesecake for my 10 cats to share?”
How do I get out of this?
“You know what I like to collect? Hair.”
Not to mention, the Cruz cheerleaders who are now attacking Trump failed miserably at attacking him in the beginning. If they did go after him, it was over the delivery of his message, but not the message itself (Don’t hold the knife like this when you stab conservatism, hold it like this!). So when the fecal matter hits the osculating and rigid rotating vanes of the GOP fan, what good are these people going to be?
They’ll just be the glorified pallbearers of the GOP’s casket, and they’ll probably be classless and wear their Tea Party paraphernalia to the funeral. Sadly, it’s like the bar owner showing up to the drunk driver’s funeral after telling everyone he was fine to drive.
In said link, Dana praises Cruz by noting the following:
This is how you deal with the Trump factor. Yesterday Senator Ted Cruz slammed Republican criticism of Donald Trumps remarks on illegal entry saying “I stand with Donald Trump” and observing that those criticizing “have been vocal advocates for amnesty.”
When National Review released their Against Trump symposium I was overjoyed with everyone else, but I also received some backlash for noting that many of the Cruz supporters – now coming out of the woodwork against Trump – waited until Cruz was out of the fallout zone before they attacked. They didn’t fumigate the house when there was limited damage because their family pet was still inside playing with the termites, and the lethal chemicals necessary to annihilate the little beasts may have made Spot go cross-eyed and see sound for a while.
Unfortunately, while they eventually got Spot away from the wood devouring insects, the house is now too far gone to save, and a whole crew of the little wood eating devils got a ride on their annoying canine. Wherever Spot goes, the termites are sure to follow. Similarly, wherever Ted goes, Donald Trump’s behavior, immigration issues, racism, Muslim hating, flippant foreign policy, etc., are sure to follow.
Come on, People.
Don’t wait! Fumigate!
Especially when it comes to politicians – no matter how beloved they are. Unlike Spot, Ted Cruz knew full and well what he was doing. I say this as a former fan: I knew that when he started getting cozy with the enemy, he required a date with the Orkin man.
After the last townhall, everyone and their brother in the conservative pool was saying, “This is the Ted I’ve missed! I have a little hope now.” That’s nice, but no one else does. Having a good townhall doesn’t erase the last year. All of the alphabet shows still have their soundbites handy.
It isn’t that Trump’s delivery is wrong, it’s that his message has always been pretty freaking horrible, as well, and once Cruz’s policies are exposed as being even more harsh in certain areas…. Well, all of Spot’s termites are going to be exposed for the world to see, and the gap we already see between Hillary and Cruz will be but a fond memory as she takes an easy win. He won’t get enough votes to beat her, but he’ll get enough votes to damage the growth of a successful third party.
Cruz on a General ticket is a loss for Republicans.
End of story.
Not only that, when he loses, Cruz fans are going to blame everyone else for not getting behind their big-government loving Fido, and the Party is going to split anyway. It won’t be because he sings the praises of deportation while 72% of the nation disagrees with him, it will be because we didn’t “see the light” and love him enough.
Then, the next four years will look something like this:
But, you know, with Hillary in the background maniacally laughing while spritzing gasoline everywhere. The GOP is in disarray, more so than any of our politicians. Not to sound so morose, but we are going to shatter if the proverbial nuclear option isn’t detonated at the convention, now we just have to decide how brutal the fallout is going to be, and who comes out ahead.
Sure, Cruz is finally going after Trump, but I have no pats on the back for him, nor do I approve of Trump’s behavior. Cruz finally fought back when the attacks were on Cruz, but when the attacks were waged at – quite literally – millions of other women, minorities, children, etc., not to mention conservatism as a whole, Cruz sat back. It’s like watching everyone else get poisoned and then finally saying “Enough!” right before the chalice gets to you. This is yet another issue Cruz will have thrown back in his face during a general – rightfully so, I might add – and if it’s between Trump and Cruz, the only thing that officially separates us from Trump’s narrative is a complete severing of ties from both campaigns.
See, enough Conservatives will get out and vote for Cruz out of desperation. They will have dodged the Trump bullet, and will be willing to drag themselves to the voting booth. That’s why his mantra at the moment is basically, “Vote for me, because I’m not Trump.” BUT, we will still lose. We’ll point fingers and spend the next two years making snarky tweets about Hillary, conservative talking heads will rake in the money (don’t be fooled, a Democrat win is a win for them), and a few years later we’ll rinse, wash, and repeat. Once again it will be the “Most important election ever!!!!!” and “We need a REAL Conservative!” and “VOTE FOR THE LESSER EVIL…. AGAIN!”
That’s not how we want this to end if we intend to finally put a stop to this nonsense.
There’s is no scenario in which a Cruz vs Hillary ticket ends in a positive way. If you believe there is, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I’d love to sell you. I know some people – in fact, some very good friends – are fired up about Cruz… Guys, please exit the echo chamber, I beg of you. Hillary’s actions have been exposed, and she’s still leading. Cruz is going to call her a criminal, and the world is going to yawn. Hillary’s going to flash photos of baby-faced illegal children, and the 72% that disagree with Cruz – and you for that matter – are going to take the message to heart and either stay home, or write in “Sweet Meteor of Death.”
Scenario 2: Someone else picks up the nomination in Cleveland
I don’t care about Trump riot warnings. Honestly, who doesn’t want to see some of those people meet a can of pepper spray? Am-i-right? However, depending on who is chosen, “real conservatives” (we all know them) will probably throw a fit if it’s not Cruz.
*Chugs bottle of Mylanta*
That said, Cruz supporters – most of them, at least – will get over it and vote for the nominee. All in all, this is – of course – the best case scenario, depending on who that new candidate happens to be. If the lucky winner delivers a loss, we’ll have to deal with the “real conservatives” blaming us, and if they win, we’ll still have to deal with the “real conservatives” anytime we try our hand at bipartisanship. They will taint the meat and then scream at us if we can’t sell it – it’s how they roll. However, win or lose, we have gained back some ground by avoiding a big-government, religious freedom attacking Republican – by the way, in case I haven’t made this clear, there’s two of them – and also detached ourselves from their damaging campaigns.
So, I guess you could say The Constitution wins in this scenario.
“But you don’t understand! Ted Cruz rocks The Constitution to sleep every night to the gentle hum of an AR-15 cooking bacon! He has it memorized!”
Cool, then I’m right when I say that he’s not haphazardly stumbling into dangerous territory in his rush to sell the harshest rhetoric, he’s instead willingly going there for your vote. Thank you for clearing that up.
Scenario 3: The RNC turns out to be the gutless cowards we thought they were, and Donald Trump is the GOP candidate.
BREAKING: The F5 Trump twister has touched down, and even Bill and Jo Harding are sitting this one out. The 300 MPH winds have proven that, yes, Donald Trump’s hair is real.
The world is over.
Hillary is our next President.
Someone help us!
Hillary is the next President if she faces Trump, and also the next President if she faces Cruz? Then if they fail to nominate someone else in Cleveland, we have nothing to lose! Cruz will be remembered as Trump-light; our Party will be attached to hostile rhetoric, and this entire election as a whole will go down in history as our demise. Every white hood wearing, Muslim hating inch of it. It’s not just because of Trump and Cruz con cuddling, it’s also the far right establishment thuggery taking place. The bullying, the antics, the silencing, etc., have overrun the GOP. Those who claim to be anti-establishment have become the establishment. If you don’t vote the lesser evil, you’re labeled “anti-conservative.” If you speak out about legitimate issues, you’re silenced by the gods of conservative punditry.
(As noted here, I have legitimate reasons to avoid voting for Bernie, Hillary, Trump, and Cruz.)
We’re doomed, right?! No.
So, what happens if Trump wins?
Trump vs. Hillary = The best chance a viable third party has ever had.
Right now you’re probably like…
Unlike the Cruz scenario, there’s a huge number of people in the conservative movement who would rather see Hillary win than Trump. When faced with Hillary or Trump, many on both sides would lean towards a viable third party. Here, I’ll let these guys explain:
So they run a moderate establishment Republican as a third-party candidate — 100% as a spoiler candidate. Worst case scenario oh, they prevent Donald Trump from winning the White House. Best case scenario they pull enough votes away from Hillary Clinton to prevent her from securing the necessary majority of 270 electoral votes.
Speaker Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s former running mate in 2012.
If neither candidate gets 270 electoral college votes, Congress picks the president. And he will be called President Mitt, the one who is laying the groundwork for this doomsday electoral scenario.
It’s right there, hidden in plain sight in the 12th Amendment of the US Constitution:
The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
And Congress can pick whomever they damn well please.
“Far fetched,” you say? Well, the 1824 Presidential Election left Andrew Jackson with 153,544 popular votes, John Quincy Adams with 108,740, William H. Crawford with 40,856, and Henry Clay with 47,531. John Quincy Adams went on to be President – with only 32% of the vote – after the election went to the House of Representatives. The snub delivered to slavery fanboy Andrew Jackson was the catalyst for the birth of the Democrat Party (Soak up your heritage, my liberal friends). While “far fetched,” the electoral college is designed to allow for such a coup (the Founders were some sneaky little devils). I’m not saying it would necessarily be Romney like those in the above noted article, I’m just saying that a sane candidate would have a serious chance.
People often forget that a majority, not just a plurality, is required to win without the House of Representatives.
“But it hasn’t happened since!”
Yes, and we’ve never had a criminal and a con-artist running against each other, either (golf clap for the American people). If this miracle is ever ripe for the picking, it’s this election. If we’re ever going to buck the two party system with any modicum of success, it would be this election.
Even better: Those behind the third party candidate wouldn’t be your libertarian loners, or vagina costume wearing leftists, they would be the people who actually put their money where their mouth is. The Conservative foot soldiers, Independents, and sensible people who knock on doors and campaign. Not the mouth-breathers who wrote “Go back home, ya rapists!” on the back of their “Make America Great Again” sign for their local
White Power Trump rally.
Hillary vs. Cruz = Hillary
Hillary vs. Trump = Hillary
Hillary vs. (Insert ANYONE else here) = Toss Up
Hillary vs. Cruz + Third Party = Hillary
Hillary vs. Trump + Third Party = Toss Up
That’s why, if it’s between Cruz or Trump on the GOP ticket, I’ve got nothing to lose and would prefer that it be Trump.
(DISCLAIMER: Once again I am not, in no uncertain terms, telling you to vote for Trump. I want us to get to the convention, I’m merely speaking about a fallback plan. Clear?)
Trump, however revolting that thought is, gives us a slight glimmer of hope for a third party because of how hated he is. Cruz dashes that hope because of how blindly loved he is by many sensible conservatives.
Yes, those are depressing facts, but you know what they say…